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☆ Australia's surprisingly strong Q3 inflation raises odds of Nov rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets are wagering both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are done with hiking. HAWKISH MESSAGINGThe recent messaging from the central bank has been on the hawkish side. The biggest contributors to the third quarter inflation were fuel, rents, and electricity. Fuel prices rose 7.2% from a year ago, reversing two quarters of price falls, with the conflict in the Middle East potentially set to further stoke inflationary pressures. The central bank forecast in August that inflation was only projected to return to the top of the bank's target band of 2-3% in late 2025.

Persons: David Gray, Worryingly, Adam Boyton, Gareth Aird, Michele Bullock, Woolworths WOW.AX, Taylor Nugent, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Wednesday, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ, Economics, CBA, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Woolworths, National Australia Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia

☆ Australian jobs surge as productivity debate heats up
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Headline indicators report a very strong employment report, but the bias towards predominantly part-time employment should temper exuberance," said Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. Markets maintained bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would keep rates steady next month, with an about 40% chance of one final hike early next year. WAGES, PRODUCTIVITYThe strong figures showed Australia's jobs market is still extremely tight more than and a year-and-a-half after the economy shook off its COVID-era border restrictions. loadingTreasurer Jim Chalmers on Thursday welcomed the strong jobs report, but warned that the labour market could slow from here, a consensus view among economists. Adam Boyton, head of Australian research at ANZ, is already seeing signs of slackening in the labour market, with underemployment rate creeping up and hours worked falling.

Persons: Barista Claudio Chimisso, Loren Elliott, Dwyfor Evans, Tim Gurner, Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Adam Boyton, Boyton, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Street Global, Reserve Bank, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, ANZ, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China

☆ RBA to raise cash rate to 4.35% in August, economists split on peak: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The RBA began tightening policy in May 2022 and had raised rates at every meeting since, other than a pause in April. Along with a still-strong job market and a rebound in house prices, expectations have strengthened for a rate increase at the August meeting. More than 90% of respondents, 23 of 25, in a July 4-5 poll expected the RBA to increase its official cash rate (AUCBIR=ECI) by 25 basis points to 4.35% at the Aug. 1 meeting. "We suspect that the coming forecast update from the RBA staff will likely tip the balance in favour of an August rate hike. Boyton said he expected a peak cash rate of 4.60% but the outlook was uncertain following the central bank's recent pause.

Persons: Adam Boyton, Boyton, Chris Read, Morgan Stanley, Devayani Sathyan, Susobhan Sarkar, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, Australia

☆ Australia cenbank warns of more hikes ahead after raising rates to 11-yr high
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The omission of this sentence reads hawkish in our view and may spell further rate hikes ahead from the RBA." Adam Boyton, head of Australian economics at ANZ, expects the RBA to raise interest rates by another quarter-point in August. In the policy statement, Lowe said the latest rate increase will "provide greater confidence that inflation will return to target within a reasonable timeframe." The RBA has increased interest rates by a whopping 400 basis points since May last year, the most aggressive tightening cycle in its modern history. "As the RBA takes rates higher, the risk of a greater slowing in the economy is rising," said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB.

Persons: Prashant Newnaha, Adam Boyton, Lowe, Tapas Strickland, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Securities, Australian, ANZ, Graphics Global, Federal, NAB, Thomson Locations: Asia, Australia

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